Global Pellet Supply May Drop 5-10 MnT in 2019- Ferrexpo

The third largest exporter of pellet in the global market, Ferrexpo Plc shared that the iron ore pellet market is to witness a shortfall of about 5-10 MnT in 2019. This is due to production disruption due to Vale dam mishap of Jan'19. Besides, the Samarco pellet plant in Brazil continues to be suspended and resumption may be delayed further.

For most of CY18, the demand for pellet remained high amidst rising need of high grade ore by Chinese mills to reduce air emissions. This led to pellet premiums trading at 10 years high during the year.

The increasing focus on reduction of air emission along with weak steel margins is to support pellet premiums and prices are expected to pick up in 2019.

However, the pellet market is expected to witness a recovery from Sweden, Canada, Bahrain, India and Iran for the year 2019, at around 7-9 MnT.

Ferrexpo Plc CY18 Updates

The Group recorded pellet production in CY18 at 10.6 MnT, up 2% against 10.4 MnT in 2017. The production levels were impacted by planned 65-day pellet line refurbishment in 2Q 2018. The company consists 65% Fe pellets as major part of its product mix.

The company's sales volume was affected in 2018 amidst reduced barge shipments given the low water levels on the Danube River in 2H 2018. Also, slower than expected rail shipments in Dec'18 added to it. However, the company expects the volumes to be recovered in H1CY19.

The company recorded pellet production at 2.54 MnT in Q1 CY19, down 11% as compared to 2.85 MnT in Q4 CY18. On yearly basis, production dropped marginally against 2.59 MnT in Q1 CY18.

For Q1 CY19 the total pellet production of 2.54 MnT is produced by ore owned by the miner, as against 2.76 MnT in Q4 CY18.

CY19 Guidance: The group expects the CY19 production guidance to be in line with that of CY18 at 10.6 MnT due to ongoing maintenance, including 75 days pellet line shutdown in H2 CY19. The group expects output to grow to about 12 MnT by 2021.

Ferrexpo is 3rd largest pellet exporter to global industry with market share of around 8.5%. The company's supplier base includes Austria, Germany, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, China, Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Turkey and Vietnam.