Chinese steel demand, output forecast lower in 2020

China's crude steel demand and output are expected to fall in 2020 after posting robust gains this year, said the country's state-run think-tank the Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute.

Crude steel output is expected to fall by 0.7pc to 981mn t in 2020, while production is forecast to grow by 6.5pc to 988mn t this year.

January-October crude steel output this year was up by 7.4pc at 829.22mn t, according to latest government data.

Steel demand is expected to fall by 0.6pc at 881mn t next year, while demand is projected to have grown by 7.3pc to 886mn t in 2019.

China's steel demand has been supported by firm growth in the real estate sector and stable growth in infrastructure investments. The manufacturing sector grew at a slower pace this year because of fall in car sales and the export impact of US-China trade tensions.

China's iron ore requirements will be around 1.22bn t on a 62pc basis in 2020, down by 3.1pc, while consumption this year is forecast to increase by 3.8pc at 1.26bn t.

Since Chinese mills import most of their iron ore requirements, the forecasts point to imports remaining around 1bn t, as they have done since 2017.

Metallurgical coke output in 2019 is expected to grow by 6.2pc to 465mn t, while production will fall by 4.9pc to 442mn t in 2020.

By Prasenjit Bhattacharya

source: Argus Media