Indian states extend lockdowns, slashing fuel demand

At least five Indian states have decided to extend Covid-19 lockdowns until the end of this month, further cutting the country's fuel demand.

States including Maharashtra and Odisha will maintain shutdowns of businesses and stay-home measures for residents until 30 April. India's nationwide 21-day lockdown is due to end tomorrow, but the federal government is expected to announce a two-week extension later today, with possible relaxations of the measures for some industries.

Gasoline and diesel demand is expected to decline by 65-70pc from a year earlier in April, while jet fuel demand will collapse by as much as 90pc, officials at state-controlled refiners estimate. India used 693,000 b/d of gasoline, 1.8mn b/d of diesel and 169,000 b/d of jet fuel in April last year.

India's economy will grow by just 1.5-2.8pc in the April 2020 to March 2021 fiscal year, down from an estimated 4.8-5pc a year earlier, the World Bank forecast yesterday. US investment bank Goldman Sachs expects India's GDP to grow by 1.6pc in 2020-21 because of the pandemic. The steep slump in GDP growth will hurt fuel demand, which the oil ministry had earlier predicted would rise by around 4pc in the current fiscal year.

India's coronavirus outbreak is spreading, with nearly 9,000 confirmed cases and 275 deaths today. Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and Delhi are among the most affected, according to government data.

State administrations are not committing to lift their lockdowns at the end of April. Maharashtra chief minister Uddhav Thackeray said the state government will review the situation before taking a decision, while Punjab chief minister Amarinder Singh said there is community transmission of the virus in the state, something that has been denied by the health ministry. The disease is likely to peak by July-August with 59pc of people in the country and 89pc in the northern Indian state testing positive, Singh said.

India's diesel consumption averaged 1.36mn b/d in March, the lowest since September 2016 and down from 1.79mn b/d a year earlier. Transportation accounts for the bulk of diesel demand, with mining and agriculture making up the rest. Gasoline use fell to 588,000 b/d last month, down from 703,000 b/d a year earlier to the lowest since January 2018.

By S Dinakar

source: Argus Media